Fear grips Markets: Quant Portfolios holding at +21%, +13%, and +250% — Update 11/14/25

After the summary “Who Wins if the Supreme Court Kills the IEEPA Tariffs” are the Portfolio updates.

Who Wins if the Supreme Court Kills the IEEPA Tariffs

  • U.S. import-heavy industries — especially electronics, retail, and autos — could see major gains if the Court rules the IEEPA tariffs illegal.
  • Two big wins: no more tariff costs going forward and possible refunds on billions already paid.

Big Potential Winners by Industry

  • Retail & Consumer Goods: Lower import costs could ease inflation pressure and protect margins.
    • Names to watch: Walmart, Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s, Amazon, Dollar Tree, Williams Sonoma, Ross, Dollar General.
  • Electronics: One of the biggest import categories — could see an instant cash windfall from refunds.
    • Names to watch: LG, Samsung, Electrolux, Best Buy.
  • Automotive: Auto parts and tooling tariffs are in focus — even partial relief would be a win.
    • Names to watch: GM, Ford, Stellantis.
  • Manufacturing & Toys: Smaller manufacturers, including plaintiffs in the case, stand to benefit too.
    • Example: Learning Resources (educational toys).

What to Watch

  • Scope of the Ruling: Could apply narrowly to the plaintiffs or broadly to all importers.
  • Replacement Tariffs: The administration could reimpose new tariffs under different laws — uncertainty remains.
  • Refund Red Tape: Even if refunds are approved, expect a slow, complex process.

Bottom Line:

If the Court strikes the tariffs, importers get a cost break and maybe big refunds — but trade policy moves fast, and the window for gains might not stay open long.

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TTM Technologies — a Santa Ana-based heavyweight — builds high-end PCBs and RF systems used across defense, aerospace, AI, and 5G.

  • Runs two segments: PCB and RF & Specialty Components.
  • Makes mission systems, RF/microwave assemblies, and custom circuit boards for everything from fighter jets to data centers.
  • Offers design, testing, and quick-turn manufacturing — full-service from blueprint to build.
  • Its tech powers radar, comms, and surveillance systems under the MOSAIC radar brand.
  • Customers include OEMs, government agencies, and hyperscalers in defense, automotive, and cloud infrastructure.
  • Founded in 1978, still out of California with a global footprint in the U.S. and Taiwan.

Key Strengths TTM Technologies:

  • Defense muscle: Biggest PCB shop in North America, 91% tied to U.S. defense. DoD budget pushing $1T—TTMI eats well.
  • Serious momentum: Q3’25 revenue up 22% to $753M; profit exploding +271%. Backlog up 14%.
  • AI heat: Defense + AI now ~80% of sales. Riding the data-center wave hard.
  • Smart expansion: New sites in Wisconsin and Malaysia boost capacity and keep the supply chain nimble.
  • Sharper ops: Utilization up 10% YoY—better margins, cleaner execution, more cash to deploy.

Key Challenges for TTM Technologies:

  • Debt weight: Medium leverage could bite if rates stay sticky.
  • Rising costs: Labor, materials, freight, energy—everything’s more expensive. Margins feel it.
  • Cyclical beats: Auto, aero, telecom—when they wobble, earnings wobble. Auto already dipped.
  • Geo-risk: Asian sites face political and supply-chain headaches. Ramp-ups aren’t guaranteed.
  • Material squeeze: Semiconductor shortages still choke some system builds.

Performance to 11-13-2025

Portfolio start date 6/27/25
Quant Alpha Weekly21.01%
EQAL (Russell 1000 Equal Weight ETF)5.44%
Portfolio start date 6/27/25
Quant 3013.38%
EQAL (Russell 1000 Equal Weight ETF)5.44%
Portfolio start date 4/14/23Live
Quant Alpha’s – Legacy247.78%
EQAL (Russell 1000 Equal Weight ETF)29.15%

The Quant Alpha Weekly Portfolio remains substantially ahead of its benchmark. Up over 21% since it began on June 27. 2025.

The Quant 30 Portfolio managed to close ahead of the benchmark once again. It is up 13% since it began on June 27. 2025.

The Quant Alpha’s – Legacy Portfolio maintained its over 240% return since April 2023, in a classic Position Trading Portfolio implementation.

Source: cnn.com/markets

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