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Quant Portfolios made all time highs again – Market up – Trump tariffs illegal – Update 02/23/26

  • Quant 30 – Up over 40% since June
  • Quant Weekly – Up over 42% since June
  • Legacy – Up over 270% since April 2023
  • Education – What would be the impact to the US economy if the Strait of Hormuz was closed for one week?

The Supreme Court overturned the IEEPA tariffs. Click here to see previous info about this on this website.

USA Stock market last week 02/20/26

Weekly returns across major U.S. indexes (approx):

  • S&P 500: Up modestly for the week, finishing higher by about +1.1%.
  • Nasdaq Composite: Up, gaining around +1.5% for the week.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: Up slightly, roughly +0.3% on the week.
  • Russell 2000 (small caps): Flat to slight gain (~+0.1%).

Takeaways

  • Market direction: The week ended modestly positive for major benchmarks, led by a Friday relief rally.
  • Strongest sectors: Energy, tech rebound, consumer staples/e-commerce showed relative strength.
  • Weakest sectors: Utilities, real estate, private credit–linked stocks lagged.
  • Small caps: Russell 2000 held flat with minimal net change, indicating modest participation.

Market Drivers This Week (02/23/26 – 02/27/26)

  • Mon, Feb 23 – Fed Waller Speech & Factory Orders
    • Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaks — any comments on rate outlook or inflation will be watched closely by markets.
    Mon, Feb 23 – Early Earnings Kickoff
    • Companies like Dominion Energy (D), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM), Freshpet (FRPT), GeneDx (WGS) and others report ahead of the open — early sentiment tone-setter for the week.
  • Tue, Feb 24 – Home Price & Confidence Data
    • S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and Consumer Confidence releases give clues on housing strength and consumer resilience — important drivers for financials and consumer stocks.
  • Wed, Feb 25 – Major Earnings Day
    • A heavy slate of corporate earnings hits tape including consumer, tech, and enterprise names — will influence sector rotation and overall sentiment.
  • Thu, Feb 26 – Durable Goods Orders
    • Durable goods orders gauge business investment and demand; surprises often impact industrials, materials, and manufacturing stocks.
  • Fri, Feb 27 – PPI & Chicago PMI
    • Producer Price Index (PPI) and Chicago PMI on Friday track inflation pressures at the wholesale level and regional manufacturing conditions — market catalysts heading into March.
  • Ongoing Earnings Momentum
    • Enterprise tech/software (e.g., CRM, SNOW, WDAY) and consumer/retail earnings will continue to drive sector leadership and rotation throughout the week.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at Fear 43

The Quant 30 and Quant Weekly Model Portfolios closed the week at all-time highs for the second week in a row.

Note: Choose between free and paid subscription levels. Paid subscribers enjoy instant access to weekly Portfolio updates upon release. Free subscribers access identical content, with Portfolio updates published after a two-week waiting period. Want timely access to the new Adds/Removes? Click here.

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

Any newly added stock is being released to Paid Subscribers today. Below are the updates from two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to significantly outperform its benchmark, 42% versus 16%.

No Adds to the Portfolio this week

Add (02/06/26) : None

Outperformers:  CDE (Coeur Mining) up over 70%, MU (Micron Technology) up over 170%,  VISN (Vistance Networks) up over +140%

Click here for the Quant Alpha Weekly details

Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 40% to 16%.

No Adds for this update. 

Add (02/06/26) : None

Remove (02/06/26) : None

Outperformers:  MU (Micron Technology) up over 250%, GFI (Gold Fields) up over 120%, LITE (Lumentum Holdings) up over 170% and KGC (Kinross Gold) is up over 110%.

Click here for the Quant 30 details

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio now has around 19 stocks in it. It is up over +270% since it began in 2023. Celestica achieves a 11 bagger performance.

Remove (02/06/26): None

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over 500%, PSIX (Power Solutions)up over 300%,  STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over 600%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over 900%  and CLS (Celestica) is up over 1100%

Click here for the Quant Alpha’s – Legacy details

Performance to 02-20-2026

Portfolio start date 6/27/25
Quant Alpha Weekly42.30%
EQAL (Russell 1000 Equal Weight ETF)16.87%
Portfolio start date 6/27/25
Quant 3040.28%
EQAL (Russell 1000 Equal Weight ETF)16.87%
Portfolio start date 4/14/23
Quant Alpha’s – Legacy302.79%
EQAL (Russell 1000 Equal Weight ETF)40.63%

Click here for the Live Quant scorecard

The Quant Alpha Weekly Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. Up over 42% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant 30 Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. It is up 40% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant Alpha’s – Legacy Portfolio maintained its over 270% return since April 2023, in a classic Position Trading Portfolio implementation.

What would be the impact to the US economy if the Strait of Hormuz was closed for one week?

Energy & Oil Markets

  • Oil prices would likely spike sharply (potentially $10–$25+ per barrel in days).
  • Roughly 20% of global oil supply passes through Hormuz — markets would price in supply risk immediately.
  • U.S. gasoline prices would jump, likely within days due to futures markets reacting first.
  • Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases could be considered to stabilize prices.

Inflation Impact

  • Short-term inflation bump, especially in energy, transportation, and logistics.
  • CPI expectations would rise, even if the disruption lasts only one week.
  • Could temporarily complicate Federal Reserve rate-cut timing.

Stock Market Reaction

  • Initial sell-off in equities, particularly:
    • Airlines
    • Transportation
    • Consumer discretionary
    • Rate-sensitive growth stocks
  • Energy stocks likely surge (oil producers, refiners, services).
  • Defensive sectors (utilities, staples) may outperform.

Interest Rates & Dollar

  • Treasury yields could initially fall on safe-haven buying.
  • U.S. dollar likely strengthens vs. risk currencies.
  • If oil spike persists, inflation fears could push longer-term yields back up.

Supply Chain & Trade

  • Short-term disruptions to global shipping routes.
  • Higher freight and insurance costs.
  • Limited direct U.S. import dependency vs Europe/Asia, but global ripple effects would be felt.

Broader Economic Growth

  • One-week closure alone likely does NOT cause recession.
  • If resolved quickly, impact would mostly be:
    • Sentiment shock
    • Temporary energy-driven price spike
  • Extended closure (multiple weeks) would materially slow global growth.

Geopolitical & Military Risk Premium

  • Risk premium added to oil for months afterward.
  • Defense stocks could rally.
  • Markets would watch for escalation in the Persian Gulf region.

Bottom Line

One week = market shock, energy spike, volatility.
Multiple weeks = inflation surge, growth slowdown, potential recession risk.

Website Investment Educational Blog Posts –

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated. Disclaimer

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