CommScope up over 90% – Quant Weekly update 08/08/2025

This week’s major portfolio development involves a partial buyout of COMM (CommScope), a holding in the Quant Alpha Weekly Portfolio. Following an offer from Amphenol, CommScope shares surged over 90%. What makes this deal unique is that it’s not a full acquisition—Amphenol is proposing to acquire two-thirds of the company, leaving the remaining third as a smaller, leaner, and significantly deleveraged entity. A sizable special dividend is also planned as part of the transaction. Full details of the offer can be found [here].

Based on a rough valuation, if the deal were to close today, my estimate puts CommScope’s total value at approximately $18.60 per share. This assumes the remaining one-third of the now-deleveraged company is worth 100% more than one-third of the pre-deal, highly leveraged version. If the market places a higher valuation on the streamlined business, the total value could be even greater.

Analysts have taken notice:

  • Morgan Stanley raised its price target from $4 to $17
  • Raymond James raised its target to $19

At the current price of $14.99, the stock is trading at a 19.4% discount to my estimated deal value. That’s unusually wide for a newly announced buyout—likely due to the unconventional structure, which may be causing investor uncertainty. Many may simply be locking in their quick gains, and that’s understandable.

As for this portfolio, COMM will remain a holding as long as it maintains a Buy rating from the Quant system. Once it falls out of the buy range, it will be removed in a subsequent update.

It’s important to note: this outcome isn’t luck. Every stock in the three Quant Model Portfolios was selected based on being deeply undervalued with strong fundamentals. When one of them receives a major buyout offer, it’s a validation of the system doing exactly what it was designed to do.

Model Portfolios for SwingTrader.Trading performance to date.

Performance to 08-07-2025

Portfolio start date 6/27/25
Quant Alpha Weekly12.27%
EQAL (Russell 1000 Equal Weight ETF)1.30%
Portfolio start date 6/27/25
Quant 301.45%
EQAL (Russell 1000 Equal Weight ETF)1.30%
Portfolio start date 4/14/23
Quant Alpha’s – Legacy193.54%
EQAL (Russell 1000 Equal Weight ETF)24.97%

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Portfolio Summary for SwingTrader.Trading

The Quant Alpha Weekly Portfolio continues it’s steady increase in new members. It received a partial buyout on CommScope which caused that stock to soar over 90% and put the Portfolio in the black by over 10% overall

The Quant 30 Portfolio now is starting to see some rotation among the 30 members. It managed to close ahead of the benchmark for the first time.

The Quant Alpha’s – Legacy Portfolio maintained its over 190% return.

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